Foundation PART I THE PSYCHOHISTORIANS

1. HARI SELDON†¦ born in the 11,988th year of the Galactic Era; died 12,069. The dates are more commonly given in terms of the current Foundational Era as 79 to the year 1 F.E. Born to middle-class parents on Helicon, Arcturus sector (where his father, in a legend of doubtful authenticity, was a tobacco grower in the hydroponic plants of the planet), he early showed amazing ability in mathematics. Anecdotes concerning his ability are innumerable, and some are contradictory. At the age of two, he is said to have †¦ †¦ Undoubtedly his greatest contributions were in the field of psychohistory. Seldon found the field little more than a set of vague axioms; he left it a profound statistical science†¦. †¦ The best existing authority we have for the details of his life is the biography written by Gaal Dornick who. as a young man, met Seldon two years before the great mathematician's death. The story of the meeting †¦ ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA* * All quotations from the Encyclopedia Galactica here reproduced are taken from the 116th Edition published in 1020 F.E. by the Encyclopedia Galactica Publishing Co., Terminus, with permission of the publishers. His name was Gaal Dornick and he was just a country boy who had never seen Trantor before. That is, not in real life. He had seen it many times on the hyper-video, and occasionally in tremendous three-dimensional newscasts covering an Imperial Coronation or the opening of a Galactic Council. Even though he had lived all his life on the world of Synnax, which circled a star at the edges of the Blue Drift, he was not cut off from civilization, you see. At that time, no place in the Galaxy was. There were nearly twenty-five million inhabited planets in the Galaxy then, and not one but owed allegiance to the Empire whose seat was on Trantor. It was the last halfcentury in which that could be said. To Gaal, this trip was the undoubted climax of his young, scholarly life. He had been in space before so that the trip, as a voyage and nothing more, meant little to him. To be sure, he had traveled previously only as far as Synnax's only satellite in order to get the data on the mechanics of meteor driftage which he needed for his dissertation, but space-travel was all one whether one travelled half a million miles, or as many light years. He had steeled himself just a little for the Jump through hyper-space, a phenomenon one did not experience in simple interplanetary trips. The Jump remained, and would probably remain forever, the only practical method of travelling between the stars. Travel through ordinary space could proceed at no rate more rapid than that of ordinary light (a bit of scientific knowledge that belonged among the items known since the forgotten dawn of human history), and that would have meant years of travel between even the nearest of inhabited systems. Through hyper-space, that unimaginable region that was neither space nor time, matter nor energy, something nor nothing, one could traverse the length of the Galaxy in the interval between two neighboring instants of time. Gaal had waited for the first of those Jumps with a little dread curled gently in his stomach, and it ended in nothing more than a trifling jar, a little internal kick which ceased an instant before he could be sure he had felt it. That was all. And after that, there was only the ship, large and glistening; the cool production of 12,000 years of Imperial progress; and himself, with his doctorate in mathematics freshly obtained and an invitation from the great Hari Seldon to come to Trantor and join the vast and somewhat mysterious Seldon Project. What Gaal was waiting for after the disappointment of the Jump was that first sight of Trantor. He haunted the View-room. The steel shutter-lids were rolled back at announced times and he was always there, watching the hard brilliance of the stars, enjoying the incredible hazy swarm of a star cluster, like a giant conglomeration of fire-flies caught in mid-motion and stilled forever, At one time there was the cold, blue-white smoke of a gaseous nebula within five light years of the ship, spreading over the window like distant milk, filling the room with an icy tinge, and disappearing out of sight two hours later, after another Jump. The first sight of Trantor's sun was that of a hard, white speck all but lost in a myriad such, and recognizable only because it was pointed out by the ship's guide. The stars were thick here near the Galactic center. But with each Jump, it shone more brightly, drowning out the rest, paling them and thinning them out. An officer came through and said, â€Å"View-room will be closed for the remainder of the trip. Prepare for landing.† Gaal had followed after, clutching at the sleeve of the white uniform with the Spaceship-and-Sun of the Empire on it. He said, â€Å"Would it be possible to let me stay? I would like to see Trantor.† The officer smiled and Gaal flushed a bit. It occurred to him that he spoke with a provincial accent. The officer said, â€Å"We'll be landing on Trantor by morning.† â€Å"I mean I want to see it from Space.† â€Å"Oh. Sorry, my boy. If this were a space-yacht we might manage it. But we're spinning down, sunside. You wouldn't want to be blinded, burnt, and radiation-scarred all at the same time, would you?† Gaal started to walk away. The officer called after him, â€Å"Trantor would only be gray blur anyway, Kid. Why don't you take a space-tour once you hit Trantor. They're cheap.† Gaal looked back, â€Å"Thank you very much.† It was childish to feel disappointed, but childishness comes almost as naturally to a man as to a child, and there was a lump in Gaal's throat. He had never seen Trantor spread out in all its incredibility, as large as life, and he hadn't expected to have to wait longer. 2. The ship landed in a medley of noises. There was the far-off hiss of the atmosphere cutting and sliding past the metal of the ship. There was the steady drone of the conditioners fighting the heat of friction, and the slower rumble of the engines enforcing deceleration. There was the human sound of men and women gathering in the debarkation rooms and the grind of the hoists lifting baggage, mail, and freight to the long axis of the ship, from which they would be later moved along to the unloading platform. Gaal felt the slight jar that indicated the ship no longer had an independent motion of its own. Ship's gravity had been giving way to planetary gravity for hours. Thousands of passengers had been sitting patiently in the debarkation rooms which swung easily on yielding force-fields to accommodate its orientation to the changing direction of the gravitational forces. Now they were crawling down curving ramps to the large, yawning locks. Gaal's baggage was minor. He stood at a desk, as it was quickly and expertly taken apart and put together again. His visa was inspected and stamped. He himself paid no attention. This was Trantor! The air seemed a little thicker here, the gravity a bit greater, than on his home planet of Synnax, but he would get used to that. He wondered if he would get used to immensity. Debarkation Building was tremendous. The roof was almost lost in the heights. Gaal could almost imagine that clouds could form beneath its immensity. He could see no opposite wall; just men and desks and converging floor till it faded out in haze. The man at the desk was speaking again. He sounded annoyed. He said, â€Å"Move on, Dornick.† He had to open the visa, look again, before he remembered the name. Gaal said, â€Å"Where where† The man at the desk jerked a thumb, â€Å"Taxis to the right and third left.† Gaal moved, seeing the glowing twists of air suspended high in nothingness and reading, â€Å"TAXIS TO ALL POINTS.† A figure detached itself from anonymity and stopped at the desk, as Gaal left. The man at the desk looked up and nodded briefly. The figure nodded in return and followed the young immigrant. He was in time to hear Gaal's destination. Gaal found himself hard against a railing. The small sign said, â€Å"Supervisor.† The man to whom the sign referred did not look up. He said, â€Å"Where to?† Gaal wasn't sure, but even a few seconds hesitation meant men queuing in line behind him. The Supervisor looked up, â€Å"Where to?† Gaal's funds were low, but there was only this one night and then he would have a job. He tried to sound nonchalant, â€Å"A good hotel, please.† The Supervisor was unimpressed, â€Å"They're all good. Name one.† Gaal said, desperately, â€Å"The nearest one, please.† The Supervisor touched a button. A thin line of light formed along the floor, twisting among others which brightened and dimmed in different colors and shades. A ticket was shoved into Gaal's hands. It glowed faintly. The Supervisor said, â€Å"One point twelve.† Gaal fumbled for the coins. He said, â€Å"Where do I go?† â€Å"Follow the light. The ticket will keep glowing as long as you're pointed in the tight direction.† Gaal looked up and began walking. There were hundreds creeping across the vast floor, following their individual trails, sifting and straining themselves through intersection points to arrive at their respective destinations. His own trail ended. A man in glaring blue and yellow uniform, shining and new in unstainable plasto-textile, reached for his two bags. â€Å"Direct line to the Luxor,† he said. The man who followed Gaal heard that. He also heard Gaal say, â€Å"Fine,† and watched him enter the blunt-nosed vehicle. The taxi lifted straight up. Gaal stared out the curved, transparent window, marvelling at the sensation of airflight within an enclosed structure and clutching instinctively at the back of the driver's seat. The vastness contracted and the people became ants in random distribution. The scene contracted further and began to slide backward. There was a wall ahead. It began high in the air and extended upward out of sight. It was riddled with holes that were the mouths of tunnels. Gaal's taxi moved toward one then plunged into it. For a moment, Gaal wondered idly how his driver could pick out one among so many. There was now only blackness, with nothing but the past-flashing of a colored signal light to relieve the gloom. The air was full of a rushing sound. Gaal leaned forward against deceleration then and the taxi popped out of the tunnel and descended to ground-level once more. â€Å"The Luxor Hotel,† said the driver, unnecessarily. He helped Gaal with his baggage, accepted a tenth-credit tip with a businesslike air, picked up a waiting passenger, and was rising again. In all this, from the moment of debarkation, there had been no glimpse of sky. 3. TRANTOR†¦At the beginning of the thirteenth millennium, this tendency reached its climax. As the center of the Imperial Government for unbroken hundreds of generations and located, as it was, toward the central regions of the Galaxy among the most densely populated and industrially advanced worlds of the system, it could scarcely help being the densest and richest clot of humanity the Race had ever seen. Its urbanization, progressing steadily, had finally reached the ultimate. All the land surface of Trantor, 75,000,000 square miles in extent, was a single city. The population, at its height, was well in excess of forty billions. This enormous population was devoted almost entirely to the administrative necessities of Empire, and found themselves all too few for the complications of the task. (It is to be remembered that the impossibility of proper administration of the Galactic Empire under the uninspired leadership of the later Emperors was a considerable factor in the Fall.) Daily, fleets of ships in the tens of thousands brought the produce of twenty agricultural worlds to the dinner tables of Trantor†¦. Its dependence upon the outer worlds for food and, indeed, for all necessities of life, made Trantor increasingly vulnerable to conquest by siege. In the last millennium of the Empire, the monotonously numerous revolts made Emperor after Emperor conscious of this, and Imperial policy became little more than the protection of Trantor's delicate jugular vein†¦. ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA Gaal was not certain whether the sun shone, or, for that matter, whether it was day or night. He was ashamed to ask. All the planet seemed to live beneath metal. The meal of which he had just partaken had been labelled luncheon, but there were many planets which lived a standard timescale that took no account of the perhaps inconvenient alternation of day and night. The rate of planetary turnings differed, and he did not know that of Trantor. At first, he had eagerly followed the signs to the â€Å"Sun Room† and found it but a chamber for basking in artificial radiation. He lingered a moment or two, then returned to the Luxor's main lobby. He said to the room clerk, â€Å"Where can I buy a ticket for a planetary tour?† â€Å"Right here.† â€Å"When will it start?† â€Å"You just missed it. Another one tomorrow. Buy a ticket now and we'll reserve a place for you.† â€Å"Oh.† Tomorrow would be too late. He would have to be at the University tomorrow. He said, â€Å"There wouldn't be an observation tower or something? I mean, in the open air.† â€Å"Sure! Sell you a ticket for that, if you want. Better let me check if it's raining or not.† He closed a contact at his elbow and read the flowing letters that raced across a frosted screen. Gaal read with him. The room clerk said, â€Å"Good weather. Come to think of it, I do believe it's the dry season now.† He added, conversationally, â€Å"I don't bother with the outside myself. The last time I was in the open was three years ago. You see it once, you know and that's all there is to it. Here's your ticket. Special elevator in the rear. It's marked ‘To the Tower.' Just take it.† The elevator was of the new sort that ran by gravitic repulsion. Gaal entered and others flowed in behind him. The operator closed a contact. For a moment, Gaal felt suspended in space as gravity switched to zero, and then he had weight again in small measure as the elevator accelerated upward. Deceleration followed and his feet left the floor. He squawked against his will. The operator called out, â€Å"Tuck your feet under the railing. Can't you read the sign?† The others had done so. They were smiling at him as he madly and vainly tried to clamber back down the wall. Their shoes pressed upward against the chromium of the railings that stretched across the floor in parallels set two feet apart. He had noticed those railings on entering and had ignored them. Then a hand reached out and pulled him down. He gasped his thanks as the elevator came to a halt. He stepped out upon an open terrace bathed in a white brilliance that hurl his eyes. The man, whose helping hand he had just now been the recipient of, was immediately behind him. The man said, kindly, â€Å"Plenty of seats.† Gaal closed his mouth; he had been gaping; and said, â€Å"It certainly seems so.† He started for them automatically, then stopped. He said, â€Å"If you don't mind, I'll just stop a moment at the railing. I I want to look a bit.† The man waved him on, good-naturedly, and Gaal leaned out over the shoulder-high railing and bathed himself in all the panorama. He could not see the ground. It was lost in the ever increasing complexities of man-made structures. He could see no horizon other than that of metal against sky, stretching out to almost uniform grayness, and he knew it was so over all the land-surface of the planet. There was scarcely any motion to be seen a few pleasure-craft lazed against the sky-but all the busy traffic of billions of men were going on, he knew, beneath the metal skin of the world. There was no green to be seen; no green, no soil, no life other than man. Somewhere on the world, he realized vaguely, was the Emperor's palace, set amid one hundred square miles of natural soil, green with trees, rainbowed with flowers. It was a small island amid an ocean of steel, but it wasn't visible from where he stood. It might be ten thousand miles away. He did not know. Before very long, he must have his tour! He sighed noisily, and realized finally that he was on Trantor at last; on the planet which was the center of all the Galaxy and the kernel of the human race. He saw none of its weaknesses. He saw no ships of food landing. He was not aware of a jugular vein delicately connecting the forty billion of Trantor with the rest of the Galaxy. He was conscious only of the mightiest deed of man; the complete and almost contemptuously final conquest of a world. He came away a little blank-eyed. His friend of the elevator was indicating a seat next to himself and Gaal took it. The man smiled. â€Å"My name is Jerril. First time on Trantor?† â€Å"Yes, Mr. Jerril.† â€Å"Thought so. Jerril's my first name. Trantor gets you if you've got the poetic temperament. Trantorians never come up here, though. They don't like it. Gives them nerves.† â€Å"Nerves! My name's Gaal, by the way. Why should it give them nerves? It's glorious.† â€Å"Subjective matter of opinion, Gaal. If you're born in a cubicle and grow up in a corridor, and work in a cell, and vacation in a crowded sun-room, then coming up into the open with nothing but sky over you might just give you a nervous breakdown. They make the children come up here once a year, after they're five. I don't know if it does any good. They don't get enough of it, really, and the first few times they scream themselves into hysteria. They ought to start as soon as they're weaned and have the trip once a week.† He went on, â€Å"Of course, it doesn't really matter. What if they never come out at all? They're happy down there and they run the Empire. How high up do you think we are?† He said, â€Å"Half a mile?† and wondered if that sounded naive. It must have, for Jerril chuckled a little. He said, â€Å"No. Just five hundred feet.† â€Å"What? But the elevator took about â€Å" â€Å"I know. But most of the time it was just getting up to ground level. Trantor is tunneled over a mile down. It's like an iceberg. Nine-tenths of it is out of sight. It even works itself out a few miles into the sub-ocean soil at the shorelines. In fact, we're down so low that we can make use of the temperature difference between ground level and a couple of miles under to supply us with all the energy we need. Did you know that?† â€Å"No, I thought you used atomic generators.† â€Å"Did once. But this is cheaper.† â€Å"I imagine so.† â€Å"What do you think of it all?† For a moment, the man's good nature evaporated into shrewdness. He looked almost sly. Gaal fumbled. â€Å"Glorious,† he said, again. â€Å"Here on vacation? Traveling? Sight-seeing?† â€Å"No exactly. At least, I've always wanted to visit Trantor but I came here primarily for a job.† â€Å"Oh?† Gaal felt obliged to explain further, â€Å"With Dr. Seldon's project at the University of Trantor.† â€Å"Raven Seldon?† â€Å"Why, no. The one I mean is Hari Seldon. -The psychohistorian Seldon. I don't know of any Raven Seldon.† â€Å"Hari's the one I mean. They call him Raven. Slang, you know. He keeps predicting disaster.† â€Å"He does?† Gaal was genuinely astonished. â€Å"Surely, you must know.† Jerril was not smiling. â€Å"You're coming to work for him, aren't you?† â€Å"Well, yes, I'm a mathematician. Why does he predict disaster? What kind of disaster?† â€Å"What kind would you think?† â€Å"I'm afraid I wouldn't have the least idea. I've read the papers Dr. Seldon and his group have published. They're on mathematical theory.† â€Å"Yes, the ones they publish.† Gaal felt annoyed. He said, â€Å"I think I'll go to my room now. Very pleased to have met you.† Jerril waved his arm indifferently in farewell. Gaal found a man waiting for him in his room. For a moment, he was too startled to put into words the inevitable, â€Å"What are you doing here?† that came to his lips. The man rose. He was old and almost bald and he walked with a limp, but his eyes were very bright and blue. He said, â€Å"I am Hari Seldon,† an instant before Gaal's befuddled brain placed the face alongside the memory of the many times he had seen it in pictures. 4. PSYCHOHISTORY†¦Gaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli†¦. †¦ Implicit in all these definitions is the assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by Seldon's First Theorem which †¦ A further necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly random †¦ The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon. Functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social and economic forces as †¦ ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA â€Å"Good afternoon, sir,† said Gaal. â€Å"I I† â€Å"You didn't think we were to meet before tomorrow? Ordinarily, we would not have. It is just that if we are to use your services, we must work quickly. It grows continually more difficult to obtain recruits.† â€Å"I don't understand, sir.† â€Å"You were talking to a man on the observation tower, were you not?† â€Å"Yes. His first name is Jerril. I know no more about him. â€Å" â€Å"His name is nothing. He is an agent of the Commission of Public Safety. He followed you from the space-port.† â€Å"But why? I am afraid I am very confused.† â€Å"Did the man on the tower say nothing about me?† Gaal hesitated, â€Å"He referred to you as Raven Seldon.† â€Å"Did he say why?† â€Å"He said you predict disaster.† â€Å"I do. What does Trantor mean to you?† Everyone seemed to be asking his opinion of Trantor. Gaal felt incapable of response beyond the bare word, â€Å"Glorious.† â€Å"You say that without thinking. What of psychohistory?† â€Å"I haven't thought of applying it to the problem.† â€Å"Before you are done with me, young man, you will learn to apply psychohistory to all problems as a matter of course. ?Observe.† Seldon removed his calculator pad from the pouch at his belt. Men said he kept one beneath his pillow for use in moments of wakefulness. Its gray, glossy finish was slightly worn by use. Seldon's nimble fingers, spotted now with age, played along the files and rows of buttons that filled its surface. Red symbols glowed out from the upper tier. He said, â€Å"That represents the condition of the Empire at present.† He waited. Gaal said finally, â€Å"Surely that is not a complete representation.† â€Å"No, not complete,† said Seldon. â€Å"I am glad you do not accept my word blindly. However, this is an approximation which will serve to demonstrate the proposition. Will you accept that?† â€Å"Subject to my later verification of the derivation of the function, yes.† Gaal was carefully avoiding a possible trap. â€Å"Good. Add to this the known probability of Imperial assassination, viceregal revolt, the contemporary recurrence of periods of economic depression, the declining rate of planetary explorations, the. . .† He proceeded. As each item was mentioned, new symbols sprang to life at his touch, and melted into the basic function which expanded and changed. Gaal stopped him only once. â€Å"I don't see the validity of that set-transformation.† Seldon repeated it more slowly. Gaal said, â€Å"But that is done by way of a forbidden sociooperation.† â€Å"Good. You are quick, but not yet quick enough. It is not forbidden in this connection. Let me do it by expansions.† The procedure was much longer and at its end, Gaal said, humbly, â€Å"Yes, I see now.† Finally, Seldon stopped. â€Å"This is Trantor three centuries from now. How do you interpret that? Eh?† He put his head to one side and waited. Gaal said, unbelievingly, â€Å"Total destruction! But but that is impossible. Trantor has never been â€Å" Seldon was filled with the intense excitement of a man whose body only had grown old. â€Å"Come, come. You saw how the result was arrived at. Put it into words. Forget the symbolism for a moment.† Gaal said, â€Å"As Trantor becomes more specialized, it be comes more vulnerable, less able to defend itself. Further, as it becomes more and more the administrative center of Empire, it becomes a greater prize. As the Imperial succession becomes more and more uncertain, and the feuds among the great families more rampant, social responsibility disappears. â€Å" â€Å"Enough. And what of the numerical probability of total destruction within three centuries?† â€Å"I couldn't tell.† â€Å"Surely you can perform a field-differentiation?† Gaal felt himself under pressure. He was not offered the calculator pad. It was held a foot from his eyes. He calculated furiously and felt his forehead grow slick with sweat. He said, â€Å"About 85%?† â€Å"Not bad,† said Seldon, thrusting out a lower lip, â€Å"but not good. The actual figure is 92.5%.† Gaal said, â€Å"And so you are called Raven Seldon? I have seen none of this in the journals.† â€Å"But of course not. This is unprintable. Do you suppose the Imperium could expose its shakiness in this manner. That is a very simple demonstration in psychohistory. But some of our results have leaked out among the aristocracy.† â€Å"That's bad.† â€Å"Not necessarily. All is taken into account.† â€Å"But is that why I'm being investigated?† â€Å"Yes. Everything about my project is being investigated.† â€Å"Are you in danger, sir?† â€Å"Oh, yes. There is probability of 1.7% that I will be executed, but of course that will not stop the project. We have taken that into account as well. Well, never mind. You will meet me, I suppose, at the University tomorrow?† â€Å"I will,† said Gaal. 5. COMMISSION OF PUBLIC SAFETY†¦ The aristocratic coterie rose to power after the assassination of Cleon I, last of the Entuns. In the main, they formed an element of order during the centuries of instability and uncertainty in the Imperium. Usually under the control of the great families of the Chens and the Divarts, it degenerated eventually into a blind instrument for maintenance of the status quo†¦. They were not completely removed as a power in the state until after the accession of the last strong Emperor, Cleon H. The first Chief Commissioner†¦. †¦ In a way, the beginning of the Commission's decline can be traced to the trial of Hari Seldon two years before the beginning of the Foundational Era. That trial is described in Gaal Dornick's biography of Hari Seldon†¦. ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA Gaal did not carry out his promise. He was awakened the next morning by a muted buzzer. He answered it, and the voice of the desk clerk, as muted, polite and deprecating as it well might be, informed him that he was under detention at the orders of the Commission of Public Safety. Gaal sprang to the door and found it would no longer open. He could only dress and wait. They came for him and took him elsewhere, but it was still detention. They asked him questions most politely. It was all very civilized. He explained that he was a provincial of Synnax; that he had attended such and such schools and obtained a Doctor of Mathematics degree on such and such a date. He had applied for a position on Dr. Seldon's staff and had been accepted. Over and over again, he gave these details; and over and over again, they returned to the question of his joining the Seldon Project. How had he heard of it; what were to be his duties; what secret instructions had he received; what was it all about? He answered that he did not know. He had no secret instructions. He was a scholar and a mathematician. He had no interest in politics. And finally the gentle inquisitor asked, â€Å"When will Trantor be destroyed?† Gaal faltered, â€Å"I could not say of my own knowledge.† â€Å"Could you say of anyone's?† â€Å"How could I speak for another?† He felt warm; overwarm. The inquisitor said, â€Å"Has anyone told you of such destruction; set a date?† And, as the young man hesitated, he went on, â€Å"You have been followed, doctor. We were at the airport when you arrived; on the observation tower when you waited for your appointment; and, of course, we were able to overhear your conversation with Dr. Seldon.† Gaal said, â€Å"Then you know his views on the matter.† â€Å"Perhaps. But we would like to hear them from you.† â€Å"He is of the opinion that Trantor would be destroyed within three centuries.† â€Å"He proved it, uh mathematically?† â€Å"Yes, he did,† defiantly. â€Å"You maintain the uh mathematics to be valid, I suppose. â€Å"If Dr. Seldon vouches for it, it is valid.† â€Å"Then we will return.† â€Å"Wait. I have a right to a lawyer. I demand my rights as an Imperial citizen.† â€Å"You shall have them.† And he did. It was a tall man that eventually entered, a man whose face seemed all vertical lines and so thin that one could wonder whether there was room for a smile. Gaal looked up. He felt disheveled and wilted. So much had happened, yet he had been on Trantor not more than thirty hours. The man said, â€Å"I am Lors Avakim. Dr. Seldon has directed me to represent you.† â€Å"Is that so? Well, then, look here. I demand an instant appeal to the Emperor. I'm being held without cause. I'm innocent of anything. Of anything.† He slashed his hands outward, palms down, â€Å"You've got to arrange a hearing with the Emperor, instantly.† Avakim was carefully emptying the contents of a flat folder onto the floor. If Gaal had had the stomach for it, he might have recognized Cellomet legal forms, metal thin and tapelike, adapted for insertion within the smallness of a personal capsule. He might also have recognized a pocket recorder. Avakim, paying no attention to Gaal's outburst, finally looked up. He said, â€Å"The Commission will, of course, have a spy beam on our conversation. This is against the law, but they will use one nevertheless.† Gaal ground his teeth. â€Å"However,† and Avakim seated himself deliberately, â€Å"the recorder I have on the table, which is a perfectly ordinary recorder to all appearances and performs it duties well has the additional property of completely blanketing the spy beam. This is something they will not find out at once.† â€Å"Then I can speak.† â€Å"Of course.† â€Å"Then I want a hearing with the Emperor.† Avakim smiled frostily, and it turned out that there was room for it on his thin face after all. His cheeks wrinkled to make the room. He said, â€Å"You are from the provinces.† â€Å"I am none the less an Imperial citizen. As good a one as you or as any of this Commission of Public Safety.† â€Å"No doubt; no doubt. It is merely that, as a provincial, you do not understand life on Trantor as it is, There are no hearings before the Emperor.† â€Å"To whom else would one appeal from this Commission? Is there other procedure?† â€Å"None. There is no recourse in a practical sense. Legalistically, you may appeal to the Emperor, but you would get no hearing. The Emperor today is not the Emperor of an Entun dynasty, you know. Trantor, I am afraid is in the hands of the aristocratic families, members of which compose the Commission of Public Safety. This is a development which is well predicted by psychohistory.† Gaal said, â€Å"Indeed? In that case, if Dr. Seldon can predict the history of Trantor three hundred years into the future â€Å" â€Å"He can predict it fifteen hundred years into the future.† â€Å"Let it be fifteen thousand. Why couldn't he yesterday have predicted the events of this morning and warned me. ?No, I'm sorry.† Gaal sat down and rested his head in one sweating palm, â€Å"I quite understand that psychohistory is a statistical science and cannot predict the future of a single man with any accuracy. You'll understand that I'm upset.† â€Å"But you are wrong. Dr. Seldon was of the opinion that you would be arrested this morning.† â€Å"What!† â€Å"It is unfortunate, but true. The Commission has been more and more hostile to his activities. New members joining the group have been interfered with to an increasing extent. The graphs showed that for our purposes, matters might best be brought to a climax now. The Commission of itself was moving somewhat slowly so Dr. Seldon visited you yesterday for the purpose of forcing their hand. No other reason.† Gaal caught his breath, â€Å"I resent â€Å" â€Å"Please. It was necessary. You were not picked for any personal reasons. You must realize that Dr. Seldon's plans, which are laid out with the developed mathematics of over eighteen years include all eventualities with significant probabilities. This is one of them. I've been sent here for no other purpose than to assure you that you need not fear. It will end well; almost certainly so for the project; and with reasonable probability for you.† â€Å"What are the figures?† demanded Gaal. â€Å"For the project, over 99.9%.† â€Å"And for myself?† â€Å"I am instructed that this probability is 77.2%.† â€Å"Then I've got better than one chance in five of being sentenced to prison or to death.† â€Å"The last is under one per cent.† â€Å"Indeed. Calculations upon one man mean nothing. You send Dr. Seldon to me.† â€Å"Unfortunately, I cannot. Dr. Seldon is himself arrested.† The door was thrown open before the rising Gaal could do more than utter the beginning of a cry. A guard entered, walked to the table, picked up the recorder, looked upon all sides of it and put it in his pocket. Avakim said quietly, â€Å"I will need that instrument.† â€Å"We will supply you with one, Counsellor, that does not cast a static field.† â€Å"My interview is done, in that case.† Gaal watched him leave and was alone. 6. The trial (Gaal supposed it to be one, though it bore little resemblance legalistically to the elaborate trial techniques Gaal had read of) had not lasted long. It was in its third day. Yet already, Gaal could no longer stretch his memory back far enough to embrace its beginning. He himself had been but little pecked at. The heavy guns were trained on Dr. Seldon himself. Hari Seldon, however, sat there unperturbed. To Gaal, he was the only spot of stability remaining in the world. The audience was small and drawn exclusively from among the Barons of the Empire. Press and public were excluded and it was doubtful that any significant number of outsiders even knew that a trial of Seldon was being conducted. The atmosphere was one of unrelieved hostility toward the defendants. Five of the Commission of Public Safety sat behind the raised desk. They wore scarlet and gold uniforms and the shining, close-fitting plastic caps that were the sign of their judicial function. In the center was the Chief Commissioner Linge Chen. Gaal had never before seen so great a Lord and he watched him with fascination. Chen, throughout the trial, rarely said a word. He made it quite clear that much speech was beneath his dignity. The Commission's Advocate consulted his notes and the examination continued, with Seldon still on the stand: Q. Let us see, Dr. Seldon. How many men are now engaged in the project of which you are head? A. Fifty mathematicians. Q. Including Dr. Gaal Dornick? A. Dr. Dornick is the fifty-first, Q. Oh, we have fifty-one then? Search your memory, Dr. Seldon. Perhaps there are fifty-two or fifty-three? Or perhaps even more? A. Dr. Dornick has not yet formally joined my organization. When he does, the membership will be fifty-one. It is now fifty, as I have said. Q. Not perhaps nearly a hundred thousand? A. Mathematicians? No. Q. I did not say mathematicians. Are there a hundred thousand in all capacities? A. In all capacities, your figure may be correct. Q. May be? I say it is. I say that the men in your project number ninety-eight thousand, five hundred and seventy-two. A. I believe you are counting women and children. Q. (raising his voice) Ninety eight thousand five hundred and seventy-two individuals is the intent of my statement. There is no need to quibble. A. I accept the figures. Q. (referring to his notes) Let us drop that for the moment, then, and take up another matter which we have already discussed at some length. Would you repeat, Dr. Seldon, your thoughts concerning the future of Trantor? A. I have said, and I say again, that Trantor will lie in ruins within the next three centuries. Q. You do not consider your statement a disloyal one? A. No, sir. Scientific truth is beyond loyalty and disloyalty. Q. You are sure that your statement represents scientific truth? A. I am. Q. On what basis? A. On the basis of the mathematics of psychohistory. Q. Can you prove that this mathematics is valid'? A. Only to another mathematician. Q. (with a smile) Your claim then is that your truth is of so esoteric a nature that it is beyond the understanding of a plain man. It seems to me that truth should be clearer than that, less mysterious, more open to the mind. A. It presents no difficulties to some minds. The physics of energy transfer, which we know as thermodynamics, has been clear and true through all the history of man since the mythical ages, yet there may be people present who would find it impossible to design a power engine. People of high intelligence, too. I doubt if the learned Commissioners At this point, one of the Commissioners leaned toward the Advocate. His words were not heard but the hissing of the voice carried a certain asperity. The Advocate flushed and interrupted Seldon. Q. We are not here to listen to speeches, Dr. Seldon. Let us assume that you have made your point. Let me suggest to you that your predictions of disaster might be intended to destroy public confidence in the Imperial Government for purposes of your own. A. That is not so. Q. Let me suggest that you intend to claim that a period of time preceding the so-called ruin of Trantor will be filled with unrest of various types. A. That is correct. Q. And that by the mere prediction thereof, you hope to bring it about, and to have then an army of a hundred thousand available. A. In the first place, that is not so. And if it were, investigation will show you that barely ten thousand are men of military age, and none of these has training in arms. Q. Are you acting as an agent for another? A. I am not in the pay of any man, Mr. Advocate. Q. You are entirely disinterested? You are serving science? A. I am. Q. Then let us see how. Can the future be changed, Dr. Seldon? A. Obviously. This courtroom may explode in the next few hours, or it may not. If it did, the future would undoubtedly be changed in some minor respects. Q. You quibble, Dr. Seldon. Can the overall history of the human race be changed? A. Yes. Q. Easily? A. No. With great difficulty. Q. Why? A. The psychohistoric trend of a planet-full of people contains a huge inertia. To be changed it must be met with something possessing a similar inertia. Either as many people must be concerned, or if the number of people be relatively small, enormous time for change must be allowed. Do you understand? Q. I think I do. Trantor need not be ruined, if a great many people decide to act so that it will not. A. That is right. Q. As many as a hundred thousand people? A. No, sir. That is far too few. Q. You are sure? A. Consider that Trantor has a population of over forty billions. Consider further that the trend leading to ruin does not belong to Trantor alone but to the Empire as a whole and the Empire contains nearly a quintillion human beings. Q. I see. Then perhaps a hundred thousand people can change the trend, if they and their descendants labor for three hundred years. A. I'm afraid not. Three hundred years is too short a time. Q. Ah! In that case, Dr. Seldon, we are left with this deduction to be made from your statements. You have gathered one hundred thousand people within the confines of your project. These are insufficient to change the history of Trantor within three hundred years. In other words, they cannot prevent the destruction of Trantor no matter what they do. A. You are unfortunately correct. Q. And on the other hand, your hundred thousand are intended for no illegal purpose. A. Exactly. Q. (slowly and with satisfaction) In that case, Dr. Seldon Now attend, sir, most carefully, for we want a considered answer. What is the purpose of your hundred thousand? The Advocate's voice had grown strident. He had sprung his trap; backed Seldon into a comer; driven him astutely from any possibility of answering. There was a rising buzz of conversation at that which swept the ranks of the peers in the audience and invaded even the row of Commissioners. They swayed toward one another in their scarlet and gold, only the Chief remaining uncorrupted. Hari Seldon remained unmoved. He waited for the babble to evaporate. A. To minimize the effects of that destruction. Q. And exactly what do you mean by that? A. The explanation is simple. The coming destruction of Trantor is not an event in itself, isolated in the scheme of human development. It will be the climax to an intricate drama which was begun centuries ago and which is accelerating in pace continuously. I refer, gentlemen, to the developing decline and fall of the Galactic Empire. The buzz now became a dull roar. The Advocate, unheeded, was yelling, â€Å"You are openly declaring that† and stopped because the cries of â€Å"Treason† from the audience showed that the point had been made without any hammering. Slowly, the Chief Commissioner raised his gavel once and let it drop. The sound was that of a mellow gong. When the reverberations ceased, the gabble of the audience also did. The Advocate took a deep breath. Q. (theatrically) Do you realize, Dr. Seldon, that you are speaking of an Empire that has stood for twelve thousand years, through all the vicissitudes of the generations, and which has behind it the good wishes and love of a quadrillion human beings? A. I am aware both of the present status and the past history of the Empire. Without disrespect, I must claim a far better knowledge of it than any in this room. Q. And you predict its ruin? A. It is a prediction which is made by mathematics. I pass no moral judgements. Personally, I regret the prospect. Even if the Empire were admitted to be a bad thing (an admission I do not make), the state of anarchy which would follow its fall would be worse. It is that state of anarchy which my project is pledged to fight. The fall of Empire, gentlemen, is a massive thing, however, and not easily fought. It is dictated by a rising bureaucracy, a receding initiative, a freezing of caste, a damming of curiosity a hundred other factors. It has been going on, as I have said, for centuries, and it is too majestic and massive a movement to stop. Q. Is it not obvious to anyone that the Empire is as strong as it ever was? A. The appearance of strength is all about you. It would seem to last forever. However, Mr. Advocate, the rotten tree-trunk, until the very moment when the storm-blast breaks it in two, has all the appearance of might it ever had. The storm-blast whistles through the branches of the Empire even now. Listen with the ears of psychohistory, and you will hear the creaking. Q. (uncertainly) We are not here, Dr. Seldon, to lis A. (firmly) The Empire will vanish and all its good with it. Its accumulated knowledge will decay and the order it has imposed will vanish. Interstellar wars will be endless; interstellar trade will decay; population will decline; worlds will lose touch with the main body of the Galaxy. ?And so matters will remain. Q. (a small voice in the middle of a vast silence) Forever? A. Psychohistory, which can predict the fall, can make statements concerning the succeeding dark ages. The Empire, gentlemen, as has just been said, has stood twelve thousand years. The dark ages to come will endure not twelve, but thirty thousand years. A Second Empire will rise, but between it and our civilization will be one thousand generations of suffering humanity. We must fight that. Q. (recovering somewhat) You contradict yourself. You said earlier that you could not prevent the destruction of Trantor; hence, presumably, the fall; ?the so-called fall of the Empire. A. I do not say now that we can prevent the fall. But it is not yet too late to shorten the interregnum which will follow. It is possible, gentlemen, to reduce the duration of anarchy to a single millennium, if my group is allowed to act now. We are at a delicate moment in history. The huge, onrushing mass of events must be deflected just a little, just a little It cannot be much, but it may be enough to remove twenty-nine thousand years of misery from human history. Q. How do you propose to do this? A. By saving the knowledge of the race. The sum of human knowing is beyond any one man; any thousand men. With the destruction of our social fabric, science will be broken into a million pieces. Individuals will know much of exceedingly tiny facets of what there is to know. They will be helpless and useless by themselves. The bits of lore, meaningless, will not be passed on. They will be lost through the generations. But, if we now prepare a giant summary of all knowledge, it will never be lost. Coming generations will build on it, and will not have to rediscover it for themselves. One millennium will do the work of thirty thousand. Q. All this A. All my project; my thirty thousand men with their wives and children, are devoting themselves to the preparation of an â€Å"Encyclopedia Galactica.† They will not complete it in their lifetimes. I will not even live to see it fairly begun. But by the time Trantor falls, it will be complete and copies will exist in every major library in the Galaxy. The Chief Commissioner's gavel rose and fell. Hari Seldon left the stand and quietly took his seat next to Gaal. He smiled and said, â€Å"How did you like the show?† Gaal said, â€Å"You stole it. But what will happen now?† â€Å"They'll adjourn the trial and try to come to a private agreement with me.† â€Å"How do you know?† Seldon said, â€Å"I'll be honest. I don't know. It depends on the Chief Commissioner. I have studied him for years. I have tried to analyze his workings, but you know how risky it is to introduce the vagaries of an individual in the psychohistoric equations. Yet I have hopes.† 7. Avakim approached, nodded to Gaal, leaned over to whisper to Seldon. The cry of adjournment rang out, and guards separated them. Gaal was led away. The next day's hearings were entirely different. Hari Seldon and Gaal Dornick were alone with the Commission. They were seated at a table together, with scarcely a separation between the five judges and the two accused. They were even offered cigars from a box of iridescent plastic which had the appearance of water, endlessly flowing. The eyes were fooled into seeing the motion although the fingers reported it to be hard and dry. Seldon accepted one; Gaal refused. Seldon said, â€Å"My lawyer is not present.† A Commissioner replied, â€Å"This is no longer a trial, Dr. Seldon. We are here to discuss the safety of the State.† Linge Chen said, â€Å"I will speak,† and the other Commissioners sat back in their chairs, prepared to listen. A silence formed about Chen into which he might drop his words. Gaal held his breath. Chen, lean and hard, older in looks than in fact, was the actual Emperor of all the Galaxy. The child who bore the title itself was only a symbol manufactured by Chen, and not the first such, either. Chen said, â€Å"Dr. Seldon, you disturb the peace of the Emperor's realm. None of the quadrillions living now among all the stars of the Galaxy will be living a century from now. Why, then, should we concern ourselves with events of three centuries distance?† â€Å"I shall not be alive half a decade hence,† said Seldon, and yet it is of overpowering concern to me. Call it idealism. Call it an identification of myself with that mystical generalization to which we refer by the term, ‘humanity.'† â€Å"I do not wish to take the trouble to understand mysticism. Can you tell me why I may not rid myself of you, and of an uncomfortable and unnecessary three-century future which I will never see by having you executed tonight?† â€Å"A week ago,† said Seldon, lightly, â€Å"you might have done so and perhaps retained a one in ten probability of yourself remaining alive at year's end. Today, the one in ten probability is scarcely one in ten thousand.† There were expired breaths in the gathering and uneasy stirrings. Gaal felt the short hairs prickle on the back of his neck. Chen's upper eyelids dropped a little. â€Å"How so?† he said. â€Å"The fall of Trantor,† said Seldon, â€Å"cannot be stopped by any conceivable effort. It can be hastened easily, however. The tale of my interrupted trial will spread through the Galaxy. Frustration of my plans to lighten the disaster will convince people that the future holds no promise to them. Already they recall the lives of their grandfathers with envy. They will see that political revolutions and trade stagnations will increase. The feeling will pervade the Galaxy that only what a man can grasp for himself at that moment will be of any account. Ambitious men will not wait and unscrupulous men will not hang back. By their every action they will hasten the decay of the worlds. Have me killed and Trantor will fall not within three centuries but within fifty years and you, yourself, within a single year.† Chen said, â€Å"These are words to frighten children, and yet your death is not the only answer which will satisfy us.† He lifted his slender hand from the papers on which it rested, so that only two fingers touched lightly upon the topmost sheet. â€Å"Tell me,† he said, â€Å"will your only activity be that of preparing this encyclopedia you speak of?† â€Å"It will.† â€Å"And need that be done on Trantor?† â€Å"Trantor, my lord, possesses the Imperial Library, as well as the scholarly resources of the University of Trantor.† â€Å"And yet if you were located elsewhere , let us say upon a planet where the hurry and distractions of a metropolis will not interfere with scholastic musings; where your men may devote themselves entirely and single-mindedly to their work; ?might not that have advantages?† â€Å"Minor ones, perhaps.† â€Å"Such a world had been chosen, then. You may work, doctor, at your leisure, with your hundred thousand about you. The Galaxy will know that you are working and fighting the Fall. They will even be told that you will prevent the Fall.† He smiled, â€Å"Since I do not believe in so many things, it is not difficult for me to disbelieve in the Fall as well, so that I am entirely convinced I will be telling the truth to the people. And meanwhile, doctor, you will not trouble Trantor and there will be no disturbance of the Emperor's peace. â€Å"The alternative is death for yourself and for as many of your followers as will seem necessary. Your earlier threats I disregard. The opportunity for choosing between death and exile is given you over a time period stretching from this moment to one five minutes hence.† â€Å"Which is the world chosen, my lord?† said Seldon. â€Å"It is called, I believe, Terminus,† said Chen. Negligently, he turned the papers upon his desk with his fingertips so that they faced Seldon. â€Å"It is uninhabited, but quite habitable, and can be molded to suit the necessities of scholars. It is somewhat secluded† Seldon interrupted, â€Å"It is at the edge of the Galaxy, sir.† â€Å"As I have said, somewhat secluded. It will suit your needs for concentration. Come, you have two minutes left.† Seldon said, â€Å"We will need time to arrange such a trip. There are twenty thousand families involved.† â€Å"You will be given time.† Seldon thought a moment, and the last minute began to die. He said, â€Å"I accept exile.† Gaal's heart skipped a beat at the words. For the most part, he was filled with a tremendous joy for who would not be, to escape death. Yet in all his vast relief, he found space for a little regret that Seldon had been defeated. 8. For a long while, they sat silently as the taxi whined through the hundreds of miles of worm-like tunnels toward the University. And then Gaal stirred. He said: â€Å"Was what you told the Commissioner true? Would your execution have really hastened the Fall?† Seldon said, â€Å"I never lie about psychohistoric findings. Nor would it have availed me in this case. Chen knew I spoke the truth. He is a very clever politician and politicians by the very nature of their work must have an instinctive feeling for the truths of psychohistory.† â€Å"Then need you have accepted exile,† Gaal wondered, but Seldon did not answer. When they burst out upon the University grounds, Gaal's muscles took action of their own; or rather, inaction. He had to be carried, almost, out of the taxi. All the University was a blaze of light. Gaal had almost forgotten that a sun could exist. The University structures lacked the hard steel-gray of the rest of Trantor. They were silvery, rather. The metallic luster was almost ivory in color. Seldon said, â€Å"Soldiers, it seems.† â€Å"What?† Gaal brought his eyes to the prosaic ground and found a sentinel ahead of them. They stopped before him, and a soft-spoken captain materialized from a near-by doorway. He said, â€Å"Dr. Seldon?† â€Å"Yes.† â€Å"We have been waiting for you. You and your men will be under martial law henceforth. I have been instructed to inform you that six months will be allowed you for preparations to leave for Terminus.† â€Å"Six months!† began Gaal, but Seldon's fingers were upon his elbow with gentle pressure. â€Å"These are my instructions,† repeated the captain. He was gone, and Gaal turned to Seldon, â€Å"Why, what can be done in six months? This is but slower murder.† â€Å"Quietly. Quietly. Let us reach my office.† It was not a large office, but it was quite spy-proof and quite undetectably so. Spy-beams trained upon it received neither a suspicious silence nor an even more suspicious static. They received, rather, a conversation constructed at random out of a vast stock of innocuous phrases in various tones and voices. â€Å"Now,† said Seldon, at his ease, â€Å"six months will be enough.† â€Å"I don't see how.† â€Å"Because, my boy, in a plan such as ours, the actions of others are bent to our needs. Have I not said to you already that Chen's temperamental makeup has been subjected to greater scrutiny than that of any other single man in history. The trial was not allowed to begin until the time and circumstances were fight for the ending of our own choosing.† â€Å"But could you have arranged† â€Å"?to be exiled to Terminus? Why not?† He put his fingers on a certain spot on his desk and a small section of the wall behind him slid aside. Only his own fingers could have done so, since only his particular print-pattern could have activated the scanner beneath. â€Å"You will find several microfilms inside,† said Seldon. â€Å"Take the one marked with the letter, T.† Gaal did so and waited while Seldon fixed it within the projector and handed the young man a pair of eyepieces. Gaal adjusted them, and watched the film unroll before his eyes. He said, â€Å"But then† Seldon said, â€Å"What surprises you?† â€Å"Have you been preparing to leave for two years?† â€Å"Two and a half. Of course, we could not be certain that it would be Terminus he would choose, but we hoped it might be and we acted upon that assumption† â€Å"But why, Dr. Seldon? If you arranged the exile, why? Could not events be far better controlled here on Trantor?† â€Å"Why, there are some reasons. Working on Terminus, we will have Imperial support without ever rousing fears that we would endanger Imperial safety.† Gaal said, â€Å"But you aroused those fears only to force exile. I still do not understand.† â€Å"Twenty thousand families would not travel to the end of the Galaxy of their own will perhaps.† â€Å"But why should they be forced there?† Gaal paused, â€Å"May I not know?† Seldon said, â€Å"Not yet. It is enough for the moment that you know that a scientific refuge will be established on Terminus. And another will be established at the other end of the Galaxy, let us say,† and he smiled, â€Å"at Star's End. And as for the rest, I will die soon, and you will see more than I. ?No, no. Spare me your shock and good wishes. My doctors tell me that I cannot live longer than a year or two. But then, I have accomplished in life what I have intended and under what circumstances may one better die.† â€Å"And after you die, sir?† â€Å"Why, there will be successors perhaps even yourself. And these successors will be able to apply the final touch in the scheme and instigate the revolt on Anacreon at the right time and in the right manner. Thereafter, events may roll unheeded.† â€Å"I do not understand.† â€Å"You will.† Seldon's lined face grew peaceful and tired, both at once, â€Å"Most will leave for Terminus, but some will stay. It will be easy to arrange. ?But as for me,† and he concluded in a whisper, so that Gaal could scarcely hear him, â€Å"I am finished.†

Philosophy: Course Summative Assignment

Inspiration Project It Is your objective to apply three (3) of the philosophical theories studied In class to a number of songs and make a presentation to the class, which Illustrates some of your Insights. Step One: Find Three (3) Songs Think of some of your favorite songs. See If the lyrics to any of your favorite songs reflect some of theories that we studied In class. Remember, our units of study In this course Include: Human Nature, Metaphysic, Ethics, Epistemology, Social and Political Philosophy. Step Two: Apply the Theories to the SongsOnce you have picked your three songs, apply the theories from class to the songs. Make point form notes that clearly link the theories to the songs. You may apply more than one theory to each song but you must have at least 3 different theories in total, at least one per song. Step Three: Conference With Your Teacher Arrange a ‘Culminating Task Conference' with your teacher at which you will present: A point form summary of your song cho ices, showing which theories you plan to use for each song. Lyrics to your 3 songs. An explanation of which song you plan to present to the class (see below).Step Four: Prepare a Report using the point form notes as your guide, write a 1000-word (more or less) report that illustrates how your chosen philosophical theories are reflected in the songs. Your report will include an analysis of each song and an application of at least one theory per song. Your report will work best if you present the lyrics and analysis to one song together before moving on to the next song. Please include references and a resource list. Step Five: Present a Song using a program like Powering, make a presentation that brings ONE of your chosen songs to life. Inning your song as the background music, make a video presentation using photos and the song lyrics to Inspire your viewers. Make sure your video presentation reflects the philosophical view that you feel Is present In the song. Due Dates: Conference : Written Analysis: prevention: Philosophy: Course Assumptive Assignment By plaza It is your objective to apply three (3) of the philosophical theories studied in class to a number of songs and make a presentation to the class, which illustrates some of your insights. Think of some of your favorite songs.See if the lyrics to any of your favorite songs fleet some of theories that we studied in class. Remember, our units of study in this course include: Human Nature, Metaphysic, Ethics, Epistemology, Social and Political Using the point form notes as your guide, write a 1000-word (more or less) report that Using a program like Powering, make a presentation that brings ONE of your chosen songs to life. Using your song as the background music, make a video presentation using photos and the song lyrics to inspire your viewers. Make sure your video presentation reflects the philosophical view that you feel is present in the powerboat/DVD.

Investments Essay

1)   In 1994 the Bulgarian government issued bonds on which the coupon payments were tied to the GDP of the country.   I’m simplifying here, but basically a low level of GDP (a country-level measure of economic growth and activity) would reduce the interest payments on the bonds, and a high level of GDP would increase the interest payments.  ·Ã‚  Ã‚   Suppose a US investor buys these bonds, what risks is the investor exposed to? (list everything which could negatively affect the investment!) One of the risks associated with this bond is Interest rate  risk. The prices of bonds are inversely related to rates of interest. A higher GDP of Bulgaria would mean that the price of the bond will decrease, however a lower GDP would mean that the price of the bond will decrease. The interest  rate  on a bond is  set  at the time it is issued, which is in 1994. The coupon in 1994 reflected the interest rate at the time of issuance, however the increase in interest, in GDP, will make people unwilling to purchase bonds. In other words, the US investor will have a difficulty reselling the bond to secondary markets should the GDP of Bulgaria increase. Should he decide to keep the bonds, then his interest income is very much dependent on the GDP of the nation. There are is no fixed amount that he can count on. Another risk associated with bond is credit risk. Just as individuals default on mortgage payments, bond issuers can possibly default as well. Usually, bonds issued by the government are immune from this risk, but nothing is risk free in issues such as credit. Call risk is another risk the investor is exposed to. The government of Bulgaria can easily call back the bonds before maturity so they can issue it at a lower interest rate forcing the investor to reinvest the principal at a lower interest rate. Inflation risk is perhaps the worst of the investor must endure. The GDP of Bulgaria will suffer immensely if significant inflation is suffered by the country. Anything that affects the GDP of the nation will affect the interest rates of the bonds issued.  ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Are their any ways to manage/offset some of these risks? Credit risk, generally associated with any kind of credit is practically managed in investing in these bonds. Governments, generally pay out their bonds, and on time too because it will not look good for the government to default from its loans to its people or its investors. The other kinds of risks are hard to manage given that they are dictated by a nation’s GDP. The investor from the US cannot likely influence how Bulgaria’s GDP shall fluctuate. 2)   In the 1970’s Yale University implemented a system for students in which the students would receive loans to pay their tuition.   Repayment of the loans involved the following arrangement: -after graduation all students enrolled in the program would pay 0.4% of their annual income per $1,000 borrowed until the entire cohort, or class, had paid off their debt, or until 35 years had passed, whichever came sooner.   (See â€Å"The New Financial Order† by Robert Shiller, 2004, Princeton University Press, page 143)  ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   What risks are the students exposed to? The students, are exposed to the risk of paying more than they owe given that the program ensured that they can finish their studies but they essentially had to pay for royalties for 35 years. Imagine a student in 1974 who borrowed $30,000 to finance his Yale education. Assuming he has graduated in 1978, and started to earn $100,000 annual. For this first year alone, he will have to pay Yale .8% of his annual income which is $800. This payment will not stop until each person in his class, who obtained a loan from the University, has paid off his debt. The percentage of payment is fixed but the salary of this Yale grad keeps increasing yearly. Suppose this student managed to pay off his loan in 20 years, yet there are 5 people from his class who have not yet paid theirs, possibly because these 5 people have no income, then for fifteen more years the person is indebted to Yale for .8% of his annual income that is probably in the million dollar bracket by now.  ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   What risks are the lenders of money exposed to? Yale, on the other hand is exposed to the risk of students paying off their loans quickly. Given that Yale produces quality graduates (i.e. President Bill Clinton), the students can easily pay back their indebtedness given their instant financial status after graduation. The time value of money is the greatest exposure of Yale. A $30,000 loan the University has given in 1974 has bigger value as compared to the $30,000 the students gave back in installment payments. The entire class might a find a way to fully pay their debts and Yale may not recover any interests for the loan extended.  ·Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Are their any ways to manage/offset some of these risks? If one student, or a group of students has/have the means, then he or they can just buy off the remaining loan of their classmates, to ensure that everyone is debt free from Yale and the annual payments of every shall stop. The group may in turn collect from those who cannot pay Yale yet and draw up new terms and conditions for the loan. 3) In 1997 so-called Bowie bonds were issued.   These were 10 year bonds paying a 7.9% annual interest coupon, where the money for meeting the payments on the bonds was to come from the future income of musician David Bowie (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_bowie if you’ve never heard of him!). What is the purpose of issuing bonds of this nature (i.e. what’s in it for the issuer)?  David Bowie pretty much protected himself to the decline of his popularity. His bonds were issued in exchange for ten years worth of royalties. Bonds were issued in this instance as a security. David Bowie has benefited from this deal, he may or may not have known it at that time but the bonds secured him from music piracy which has plagued the industry at the end of the 90’s. What risks are investors in the bonds exposed to?  After a while, bond investors were exposed to David Bowie’s decline in popularity. Also, they have been exposed to the ultimate enemy of the music industry: piracy. David Bowie issued the bonds on time before website like Kazaa have grown over the internet. Are their any ways to manage/offset some of these risks?  The investors have exposed themselves to the ultimate risk. They have relied too much on the popularity of David Bowie at the time when David Bowie himself protected himself from his decline. Consumer tastes are highly unpredictable and I do not see a way on how the bond investors could have controlled the popularity of music piracy throughout the end of the 90’s and early 2000 when they were supposed to get the royalties. 4)   In â€Å"The New Financial Order† by Robert Shiller, the author proposes â€Å"livelihood† insurance in the form of derivative contracts on the performance of particular professions.   In brief, the way it would work is: -we construct an index which broadly captures the current levels of compensation in a particular profession based on market data.   If demand (and salary) for people in a certain profession increases then so would the index, and if demand decreases then so would the index.   In other words, the index attempts to capture how good the current career prospects are in that field. Why might people be interested in contracts valued in this way?   Think of both speculation and hedging when considering this question.  People might be interested in these kinds of contract because of speculation and hedging. These people are presently employed of course. However, should the demand for their current profession grew, and various companies here and there are offering the same job at a higher compensation, then the person will not be happy at his current job. This kind of insurance will at least get him compensated for that opportunity lost while he stays with his present employer. He speculated that he would gain in the future given that he foresees better-paying opportunities for his career, but it requires a move to another nation or state, so he entered into a contract that would allow him be compensated as he wanted but remain secure in his current position. How is this proposal different to an individual simply taking out an insurance policy against failing to succeed in his/her chosen profession? (for example, an aspiring musician taking out an insurance contract which pays out if the person never actually ever gets offered a recording contract)  This specific example has failure in mind. In the first example, the individual did not have to fail anything. He remains secure in his current position.

Races Link between Complexion, Language Proficiency Essay

Races Link between Complexion, Language Proficiency - Essay Example In its most common form, race, as a concept, is described by referring to the biological characteristics of a specific social group: for example, reference can be made to ‘skin color, eye shape or hair texture’ (Kubota and Lin 2008, p.2). However, the dependency of race on the above criteria is not quite strong. In fact, through scientific research similarities have been identified among people in regard to their biological characteristics; these similarities are often at high level leading certain scientists to support the view that ‘races do not exist’ (Kubota and Lin 2008, p.2). Still, it seems that genes of populations are not identical. This fact has led to the assumption that the concept of race could be explained more effectively by referring to the ‘genetic characteristics of populations’ (Kubota and Lin 2008, p.2). Moreover, other approaches for explaining the uniqueness of race cannot be rejected; reference can be made, for example, to the cultural and social traditions of populations or to the explanations developed by different groups of populations in regard to critical social problems (Kubota and Lin 2008). Language has been also found to be an important criterion for justifying the categorization of people in races (Cole and Graham 2012). In addition, race is commonly used for describing the genetic characteristics of large group of populations, such as nations (Daniels 2013); in this context, race can be considered as related to other concepts, such as nationality (Daniels 2013). In other words, race is a concept that can be interpreted using different criteria. In this way, the specific concept could lead to severe social conflicts, a view promoted mostly in the context of the neo-Marxism (Kubota and Lin 2008). For avoiding such risk the use of other, similar, concepts, such as racialization and racism is suggested especially when having to develop

Legal Systems and Ethical Standards Research Paper

Legal Systems and Ethical Standards - Research Paper Example This paper gives an in depth analysis of the legal and ethical standards in the two countries. For an international company wishing to do business in a foreign country it needs to familiarize itself with the legal and ethical standards that regulate the operations of its business line. This mainly focuses on the commercial laws which are known as the law of merchants, intellectual property, commercial paper, business association, private maritime law and bankruptcy (JURIST, 2010). The industrial property law is stipulated in The Paris Treaty and covers matters including unfair competition, trademarks, patents and industrial designs. To incorporate a business in Greece the company must receive approval from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, pay tax to the local tax authority and register with all other relevant bodies in the country. The legal system in the United States has led to the emergence of a capitalist market. There is free ownership of property and freedom of choice. There are unclear rules and regulations governing the business environment in the country. Joe Diver Company should get authorization from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The company should file its documents with the Athens Bar Association. It should pay the deposit capital in a bank, pay capital tax on the concentration of capital to the local tax authority and obtain a tax registration number. The company should sign the Articles of Incorporation before the notary public. The company must notify manpower OAED (Office of Aboriginal Economic Development) within eight days of hiring a worker. Joe Diver Company should register with the relevant social security authorities. For a foreign company seeking to introduce its products in Greece it must have 300,000 Euros (U. S. Commercial Service, 2010). Its labor laws must comply with those in the country and a third of the jobs created should be given to the citizens. A business

Proof read Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Proof read - Essay Example As a businessman, my father is always busy together with my mother who assists him in the details of his transactions. Despite their busy schedules though, our parents always make time for the family and include me and my sister in their travels every December. Therefore, I have come to love the month of December because I am not only able to be with my parents but I also get the chance of visiting other places. I have already been to different parts of the world such as France, Singapore, Germany, China, Seoul, Japan, Korea, England, USA, and Canada. The interesting places often make family vacations extra special and wonderful because I get to visit beautiful places and taste different delicious foods. Travelling around the world has therefore become my dream because I am very interested in exploring other cultures and meeting people from different backgrounds. As an afterthought, I think my father intentionally instilled in me the importance of travel to a businessman. Looking bac k, I could see how he has guided and molded to becoming a good businessman through the education that was given to me which I believe would really be very beneficial. I graduated from Gandhi Memorial International School in my hometown. As an Indonesian, I fluently speak my native language which is Bahasa Indonesia. Coming from Chinese descent as well, I am able to speak Mandarin because I am forced to speak the language with my grandparents. In addition, the school I attended also taught us the language. As an international school, Gandhi Memorial taught most of our subjects using the English language. This enabled me to use the language well. As an aspiring businessman, I consider my communication skills as an advantage because I know I could communicate well with other people. Knowing the benefits of education, I entered Pasadena City College on the Fall of 2013 to pursue higher education. My travels proved to be helpful as I lived

Open Source vs. proprietary solutions. A horror story about IT Essay

Open Source vs. proprietary solutions. A horror story about IT implementation gone bad. Ethical problems with a new Information Technology - Essay Example This software has a calendar, password, notification for coming period and ovulation, it is multi user and it uses multiple languages. One is supposed to feed necessary data in it, for instance when she had sex, took pills, when the period started and when it ended. Long gone are the days when one had to literally mark a calendar which is not as portable as your phone, thus keeping track of your physiological changes was a hectic task. Christians believe that life starts at conception; therefore an abortion is a murderous act that is actually punishable by God. Health complications do result in prescribed abortion so as to save a life, but the leading cause of abortion in the society today is unwanted pregnancy. However, unwanted pregnancies do occur due to unruly sexual habits or ignorance on your body’s state. My day app enables ladies to keep track of their periods and ovulation, this therefore enables them to be responsible in their sexual behavior and it could be used as a family planning strategy for married people. However, the good will of this app’s inventor has been compromised. It is factual that teenagers tend to be more experimental than theoretical. Girls at teenage can use this software to hide their immoral sexual habits. They might become lose and careless since they are assured of not getting pregnant. Therefore, the society will have a difficult time to cope with these teenagers than the situation initially was; since many teenagers were scared of getting pregnant at a tender age, now that the risk is predictable controlling their sexual behavior is a difficult task that parents of this era should learn to leave

Movie Review- Discussion Board Post Review Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

- Discussion Board Post - Movie Review Example However, the paperwork is finally discovered in an alternate location and is filed with the court at the last possible moment. The following day, Beckett is dismissed by the firms partners, who had previously referred to him as their "friend." Beckett believes that someone deliberately hid his paperwork to give the firm an excuse to fire him, and that the firing is actually as a result of his diagnosis with AIDS. He asks several attorneys to take his case, including personal injury lawyer Joe Miller (Washington). Miller is an admitted homophobe, and knows little about Becketts disease. As the case goes before the court, the partners of the firm take the stand, each committing perjury by claiming that Beckett was incompetent and that he had deliberately tried to hide his condition. The defense repeatedly suggests that Beckett had invited his illness through his homosexual acts and was therefore not a victim. In the course of testimony, it is revealed that the partner who had noticed Becketts lesion had previously worked with a woman who had contracted AIDS after a blood transfusion and so should have recognized the lesion as relating to AIDS. During cross-examination, Beckett is confronted with his inactions of concealing his illness, his supposed incompetence, and the origin of his contracting AIDS; the latter of which has gone unexplained to everyone, including Miguel, until this point. He admits that he was originally planning to tell his partners that he was gay, but he soon changed his mind after hearing them make off-color homophobic jokes in the sauna of a health club. Beckett eventually collapses in court shortly after finishing cross-examination. During his hospitalization, the jury votes in his favor, awarding him back pay, damages for pain and suffering, and punitive damages. There are five concepts within

The best counsellor is a friend Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

The best counsellor is a friend - Essay Example Counseling is considered as teamwork between the client and the counselor which helps the client develop and make positive changes in his approach to life. However, counseling is only considered effective if it brought out an expansion of worldview to both client and counselor. Nowadays, counseling is considered an important profession. Counseling is undertaken by professionals like social workers, psychologists, and even teachers. The knowledge and expertise of these professionals help so much in attaining the ultimate goal of counseling. Their educational background and experiences become important cornerstones which help them develop the proper approach in counseling as well as fully analyse the client's needs. However, this paper argues that still, the best counselor is a friend because a friend has all the important characteristics and attributes that a counselor must have in order to be efficient. A counselor and a client must have a good relationship as rapport has a huge role to play in attaining positive results (Lambert 1992). Friendship binds individuals, cultivate trust and confidence, and welcome the outbursts of strong emotions which usually come with counseling. Thus, the presence of friendly relation between clients and counselor can result to more favorable results in counseling. C. Raymond Beran (n.d.) painted a portrait of a true friend in this famous composition: What is a friend I will tell you. It is a person with whom you dare to be yourself. Your soul can be naked with him. He seems to ask of you to put on nothing, only to be what you are. He does not want you to be better or worse. When you are with him, you feel as a prisoner feels who has been declared innocent. You do not have to be on your guard. You can say what you think, so long as it is genuinely you. He understands those contradictions in your nature that lead others to misjudge you. With him you breathe freely. You can avow your little vanities and envies and hates and vicious sparks, your meanness and absurdities and, in opening them up to him, they are lost, dissolved on the white ocean of his loyalty. He understands. You do not have to be careful. You can abuse him, neglect him, tolerate him. Best of all, you can keep still with him. It makes no matter. He likes you. He is like fire that purges to the bone. He understands. You can weep with him, sin with him, laugh with him, pray with him. Through it all - and underneath - he sees, knows and loves you. A friend What is a friend Just one, I repeat, with whom you dare to be yourself. Beran's composition highlights and emphasizes the role of a friend in an individual's life. A friend, as described above is an individual to whom someone can freely open up without any pretense. A friend is someone whom a person can trust and have confidence in. A friend is someone who is always there and will willingly understand what his friend is going through. Another important aspect highlighted by Beran is the friend's knowledge about his friend. A friend, according to Beran "sees, knows, and loves you" and "understands those contradictions in your nature that lead others to misjudge you." Thus, a friend is someone who has an adequate knowledge and genuinely understands his friend. It is also significant to mention how a friend feels when he is with his

A College Football Playoff System Research Paper

A College Football Playoff System - Research Paper Example There are a number of criticisms to be leveled at the Bowl Championship Series. Although the system’s original intent was to provide an objective, logical, mathematical solution for deciding a team’s rankings, it often makes counterintuitive and downright wrong selections. In December 2010, for instance, the president of Boise State University criticized the BCS system for a computer error that likely dropped the team to number 10 in the national rankings. Frequently, these wrong rankings reflect the BCS’s attitude toward smaller schools from less well-respected conferences on the basis that those teams will not produce the same level of revenue as a larger school with more supporters. In December 2010, for instance, the president of Boise State University criticized the BCS system for a computer error that likely dropped the team to number 10 in the national rankings. Although the incident did not deprive Boise State of a bowl berth, under different circumstance s (given Boise State’s place in the WAC, a less respected conference) it very likely could have left the college without a bowl. Another criticism deals with the four major Bowl games played at the end of the college football season, into which only eight teams are admitted. Because some conferences have automatic bids to one of these games, these eight teams may not be the best (or even close to the best) teams in the nation. Some schools that are unfavorably regarded in the BCS system may be relegated to a less prestigious bowl simply on the basis of the BCS’s opinion of them. Lastly, since the BCS is largely comprised of computer algorithms to decide rankings of college teams for the bowl games, it is criticized for being easily manipulated by those who control the methods of determining bowl berths. Because the BCS system leads to tremendous cash payoffs to larger schools, there is a lack of momentum in changing it, which makes a financial argument for introducing a playoff system necessary. Financially, a playoff system could benefit boosters, schools, and advertisers by removing any element of the BCS.

The Fashion Industry of Lebanon, SWOT Assignment

The Fashion Industry of Lebanon, SWOT - Assignment Example This paper will examine the strategies incorporated into fashion and will analyze the strengths and weaknesses that are a part of the culture. The fashion industry is one that is continuing to grow in various regions, specifically because of the growth and changes in the economy. Currently, the movement into global capitalism and the focus that is incorporated into different industries is the central focus. The fashion industry began to change with the industrial revolution, specifically because it allowed for mass production and exploitation at an international level. Industry leaders in fashion are known to have two components. The first is based on global trends that are reaching different regions. The second is from ethnically diverse types of clothing, all of which help with a combination of trends and fashion forward thinking that is based on regional concepts. This is further combined with different regions that combine industrial materials that are available as resources with the fashion that is available (Chandler, 303, 2004). The several changes that are a part of the fashion industry at large have also affected t he fashion industry structure in Lebanon and the different concepts that apply to this. The Lebanon fashion industry has over 92 companies that produce different levels of fashion. The fashion is divided first by accessories, design, footwear and overall fashion. This is further divided by the expected industry that is based on global expectations, specifically which combines the economic scale of fashion with the production. Haute couture is the most expensive. This is followed by luxury items for those who still require high quality but want a lower price. Affordable luxury is the next target market followed by  mainstream brands and discount brands. The most fashion-forward area is in Beirut, the capital of Lebanon.  There are over 5,000 artisans working in this area as well as a Beirut Art Center, which includes exhibition spaces for artists.   Schools specifically designed for the visual arts are also a part of the culture.  Ã‚  

A Superior Personality Essay Example for Free

A Superior Personality Essay Every person looks up to a model personality. For some, it could be a fictitious hero like Superman, Spiderman, or Wonder Woman. For others, it could be a successful businessman like Bill Gates or the very young Google creators Sergey Brin and Larry Page. Still, others look up to great leaders like Abraham Lincoln and George Washington. These people with superior personality serve as our role models for they have set the standards for success and self-fulfillment. However, being successful is not just measured by the positions we hold in the government, or the amount of money we make annually. Superiority and success are likewise found in the ability to help others live decently, and empower them to realize their goals. While others tread their ways to success in comfortable living, some choose the thorny path where the needy, the poor, and the helpless awaited resurrection. Among those who chose the second path was Jane Addams, the co-founder of the Hull House, and the first American woman who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1931. In this paper, we shall analyze the superiority in the personality of Jane Addams—her characteristics as a leader and the reasons why she stood above the rest—in relation to the theories of Sigmund Freud, Carl Rogers, Gordon Allport, John Watson, and Otto Rank. Short Biography Jane Addams (1860-1935) was born in Cedarville, Illinois to a family of six children. Her mother died when she was two years old, leaving them with their father who was a local miller, political leader, and later a senator. Her father served as a strong influence in Addams’ life until she grew up. After Addams attended Rockford Female Seminary where she graduated as valedictorian, she wanted to take up medicine but her father feared that this move will lead her not to marry and have her own family. Therefore, to dissuade her thoughts from attending school, he organized a family tour to Europe, thinking that this would make Addams change her mind. However, John Addams died of acute appendicitis while on vacation. This affected the whole family, and in particular, Jane, who after the tour, enrolled in the medical school. She did not find the same vigor that she had before about medical school, and she was hospitalized often when they went back to the U. S. Finally, after her recovery from spine surgery, she was advised to return to Europe where she discovered what she was longing for. Seeing the Toynbee Hall in London’s slum area, Addams started heading towards the direction of fulfilling her life-long mission. After her second visit to Europe, Addams got the inspiration to establish the Hull House in 1889. By 1893, the foundation already served 2,000 persons, offering intervention in the form of schooling, medical care, legal aid, childcare, and the arts. After founding the Hull House, she launched different projects to help the less fortunate and the weak, among them were Immigrants’ Protective League, and the Juvenile Protective Association, among others. Also in 1893, she served as the first woman president of the National Conference of Charities and Corrections. In 1894, she founded the Chicago Federation of Settlements and Neighborhood Centers. Later, she also served as chairwoman of the Labor Committee of the General Federation of Women’s Clubs, and took part in the executive board of the National Labor Commission. Just like anyone, Addams had critics who attacked her for her unyielding support of workers. As such, the Hull House suffered in terms of donations, forcing Addams to render lectures on tour, and write articles to support the foundation. This eventually led to the publication of Twenty Years at Hull House, a book which received great public attention. Afterward, despite her criticized efforts to stop war or America’s participation to it, Hull House was still successful. In 1928, Addams suffered from heart attack, which marked the decline of her health. In 1931, she was hospitalized in Baltimore, the same day she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. In 1931, she died of cancer in her own hometown.

Understand The Importance Of Leadership Styles And Behaviour Management Essay

Understand The Importance Of Leadership Styles And Behaviour Management Essay Hersey and Blanchard developed a Situational Leadership Model of management and leadership styles in order to present the ideal progression of a team from immaturity (stage 1) through to maturity (stage 4) during which management and leadership style progresses from directing(1), through the stages of increased management involvement of coaching (2) and supporting(3) to the final stage where the manager becomes relatively removed delegating (4). This is the point at which the team is almost self-sufficient and possibly contains at least one managerial/leadership successor. I have applied a Hersey-Blanchard type questionnaire to determine my own leadership style. The analysis of the responses showed that I have a slight tendency to be directing above supporting and delegating with a lesser inclination towards a coaching style of management. Four situations where different leadership styles would be appropriate for your team Directing style this is generally applied when staff in the team are highly motivated to do their work but do not have much experience. It is characterised by the manager providing close supervision and giving specific instructions on what needs to be done. This style would be suited, for example, to a new starter to the team who may need considerable guidance relating to the processes and procedures which the team applies in the first instance. Coaching style this is most appropriate when staff have begun to develop in their roles and hence have grown in confidence which has possibly lowered their level of motivation. In this instance the manager takes on a more consultative persona, asking for questions and ideas, but ultimately makes the final decision. I would expect to apply this leadership style to staff who have perhaps been in their role around 6 months, trying to draw thoughts and ideas from people to show that their opinions make sense and are valid. Supporting style applied when staff have progressed to a higher level of competence and also have key ideas and input which they like to be heard. However, these staff may still lack confidence with respect to taking making decisions. This style is represented by a reduced level of supervision and the manager becoming more participative, forming part of the group and allowing the group to reach its own decisions and implement them. I would apply this leadership style when staff have progressed to being fully competent in their role, but perhaps there is still some self-doubt to take the final step to make a key decision i.e. they still require a level of re-assurance that the actions they are taking are the correct ones. Delegating style this is used where staff are highly competent and are also solid performers, where the team is self-managing, i.e. it can plan its own work, work through its own problems and take its own decisions. This style is appropriate when the team have reached the stage of being high-performers. This would be the point where I could step-back from day-to-day management of them, considering strategic management instead, and even think about progression to the next step in their/my own careers. Feedback from others using appropriate leadership model As I currently do not have any direct reports (vacancy being progressed). I requested 3 of my colleagues to complete a similar questionnaire (responses were anonymous). The analysis of the responses was quite varied as follows: First respondent suggested a balanced use of all of the 4 styles; Second respondent suggested directing was my least-preferred style and that I predominantly preferred a supporting leadership style; Analysis of the third respondents questionnaire showed a strong preference towards directing and coaching styles with the others to a much lesser extent. Possibly, these responses are not straightforward to analyse, as these individuals are not my direct-reports and had to use only their knowledge of my behaviour from working alongside me to determine how I would react in different situations suggested in the questionnaire. I suggest that my own hypothesis of a directing leadership style is (semi-) supported by the analysis of my collegues responses. Certainly, it has been an approach I have used when conducting Management System audits in the past. How leadership behaviour can be improved in the context of the model One area I need to develop is an appreciation of the benefits to be gained from being able to switch from one management style to another depending upon the situation (i.e. a particular task, project or challenge). A directing approach, if applied too frequently can be demotivating in that staff may feel that they are unable to be left alone to get on with their work, and also that they are also not asked to come up with their own ideas. My own leadership behaviour could be enhanced if, where the situation merited it, I took a more consultative or coaching approach to try to draw ideas out of the team and make them feel as if they are making a positive contribution. Eventually, I would like to reach the point where I am applying a participative or supporting approach i.e. still being the leader of the team but with a greater degree of integration so that planning and decisions are made collectively. The biggest shift that I need to make is away from a mindset which says no-one can do the job as well as I can and micro-managing people so that they deliver products to my exact specification and towards a philosophy where I give staff more freedom to think for themselves and come up with their own (possibly better) solutions. Understand how to build the Team Recognised model to explain how groups are formed Tuckman (1965) devised a model to explain the behaviour of groups of individuals in a variety of environments. The model suggests 4 unique stages that all groups experience and furthermore Tuckman states that a group has to experience all 4 phases to operate at their maximum potential. The progression is Forming; Storming; Norming and Performing. As a team matures in terms of its development and ability, the team dynamics change as do the inter-personal relationships between the team members. The leadership style of the team leader also modifies to suit, this has close parallels with the Hersey Blanchard model discussed earlier. I will relate examples of the formation of Central Assurance Team for Investment Projects to each stage of the Tuckman Model, as an illustration The team was formed as a consequence of a re-organisation of the whole of the Health, Safety, Environment and Quality (HSQE) function within Infrastructure Investment (now called Investment Projects), approximately 18 months ago. It is a combination of four sub-teams Audit, Systems, Reporting and Licensing. Forming stage- Team places high level of dependence on its leader for both guidance and direction, including the aims and objectives of the team. The roles and responsibilities of the team members at this stage are unclear. The leader may be frequently questioned on what the teams purpose is and its relationships with key stakeholders. The team members often test the tolerance level of the leader and they may also ignore process. As is suggested in the Hersey-Blanchard model, the leader applies a directive management approach. The forming stage for the Central Assurance Team (CAT) can be related to a four-day team building exercise which took place off-site, the purpose of which was for everyone to get to know each other and to understand what the role of the team was going forward. At this time, there was a certain amount of wariness between team members with respect to which role each individual was in the team for and indeed, as time progressed, some of these roles actually changed. Storming stage- The team members try to establish a pecking order within the group with respect to each other and the team leader, they may even challenge the leadership of the group. The teams purpose becomes clearer, however there is still underlying uncertainty. The team may split into cliques and power struggles ensue. The leader will adopt a coaching style of management to focus the team on its goal and avoid unproductive distractions. Very often progress may require compromises. The CAT at this point, was trying to understand a strategy of how they would deliver what was expected of them from the Investment Projects Programmes. The four sub-teams spent time drafting up strategy and functional-plan type documents to clarify their own roles and objectives. People were keen to get started on the day-job. Norming stage-The leader adopts a more participative style at this stage, and his/her main task are to facilitate and enable. The team starts to experience both agreement and concensus and their roles and responsibilities become clear. Big decisions are made by agreement between the group, smaller ones are delegated to sub-groups within the team. The team is highly committed and there is a sense of togetherness, processes are developed as well as a way of working. The leader is generally well respected at this point and some of his responsibilities are shared by the team. For the CAT, this was doing business as usual. As part of the audit team, this meant drawing up an audit plan (in-line with the strategy), producing a briefing pack, designing audit protocols and the forms and templates which form part of our day-to-day work. Then there was the actual auditing activity itself, working with the Programmes to ensure that the activity was adding value and learning lessons from each audit so that the process was improved each time. Performing stage- At this stage the team has strategic awareness, i.e. it understands not only what it is there for but why. The team has a shared vision and is independent of its leader. The team take most of its decisions in line with the criteria set by its leader, they also focus on over-achieving on their goals. The team is highly autonomous and disagreements are dealt with in a positive manner, often resulting in changes to processes and structure. The team works towards achieving its goal but also concentrates on style and process issues whilst doing so. The leaders role is to delegate and oversee tasks rather than instructing and assisting directly. With only 18 months of experience behind it, it is difficult to say whether the CAT has actually reached the performing stage in its development. As far as the audit team goes, we are still developing a long-term vision and assessing how the audit plan will be adapted to the customer/stakeholder requirements year on year. Without doubt, each member of the team is committed to producing high-quality work, it is a question of harnessing this towards a common direction. The benefits of understanding preferred team roles This was an area explored by Belbin in the late 1970s. He demonstrated that a balanced team, consisting of members of differing capabilities would consistently perform better than a less-balanced team. Belbin identified 9 roles, which, if they are all present in a team, provide good balance and increase the likelihood of success. An individuals team role(s) can be determined by the use of a Belbin-style questionnaire, examples of which are available via the internet. It is not necessary for the team to consist of 9 people, each one filling a single role, but for all of the roles to be represented by the team. When looking at the Central Assurance (Audit) team, it can be seen that, among 5 people, all 9 roles are in existence, although some are bought-in from outside of the team to provide the full complement. For example, we utilise specialists from outside of the team where we do not have an in-depth knowledge of a particular subject. The plant is seen as the senior manager who has responsibility for all four legs of the Central Assurance function as a whole. The team has a very strong completer-finisher bias. This is because the job dictates a great attention to detail and the closure of issues once identified. Additionally, the implementer role is in strong evidence as the team must convert an audit plan into reality and one senior member of staff within the team acts as the co-ordinator. Belbins study concluded that individuals are more motivated and perform more effectively when they are working in accordance with their own natural style. Hence it is a benefit to the manager to allow individuals to work to these strengths to improve team productivity and the cohesion between the team members. Know how to handle conflict What may have caused the conflict One conflict situation I was directly involved in was during my time on the Network Rail West Coast Route Modernisation Programme on the Lichfield Trent Valley 4-Tracking project (TV4). The project management team were concerned about whether the Network Rail Field Engineers were signing off a sufficient quantity of Inspection and Test data sheets. The Inspection and Test plan document is effectively proof that Network Rail has accepted the construction contractors work as being of sufficient quality and acts as a sign-off document for a particular section of work. As the Quality Engineer on the TV 4 project, I was responsible for providing assurances that these sign-offs were taking place (or that a sufficient proportion were being completed). In one particular geographical area of the works, it was discovered that very few of the Inspection and Test sheets had been completed by the Field Engineers. One of the reasons for this was that the work was spread over a 2-mile stretch of track and it was very difficult for such a small team of Field Engineers to be in place and witness the works and sign it off before the next section of works began. I reported the data to the TV4 Management Team and, unfortunately, this caused a conflict between myself and the Network Rail Field Engineers for that area as they saw the exercise that I had undertaken as something of a witch hunt resulting in a great deal of criticism of them from senior management. Effects of the conflict on individual and team performance The effect that this had was to make me very unpopular amongst the Field Engineering team and also to limit the degree to which they were prepared to assist me in future. They were also quick to make the news known to other staff working on the project! However, the exercise did highlight to management that there were resource problems if they were to provide anywhere near a significant proportion of signed Inspection and Test documents going forward. Recognised techniques to minimise and resolve conflicts In a paper called Resolving Conflict in Work Teams by the Team Building Directory, the authors state that conflict can arise from numerous sources within an team setting and generally fall into 3 categories: Communication Factors; Structural Factors and Personal Factors (source: Varney 1989). Barriers to communication are some of the most important factors and can be major sources of misunderstanding as in the example I have given. The communication barrier that has been noted here is a difference between interpretation and perception i.e. the team are not producing the required output and are therefore lazy and need to be warned to improve their performance. When perhaps the more likely conclusion was that they were drastically under-resourced to achieve the task required. The approach taken was to enforce the rules and this typically brings about hard feelings towards those who instigate it. When negative conflict occurs, there a 5 accepted methods for handling it: Compete; Collaborate; Avoid; Accommodate or Compromise (Thomas and Kilman). Each can be used effectively in different circumstances. For the particular example cited, possibly the best technique to apply was a compromise approach where a bargaining position could have been sought between two parties who had differing ideas on a solution but could not find a common ground (i.e. and agreed target for signing the documentation until the resourcing issue could be resolved). Creating a positive atmosphere and minimising the effect of conflict Negative conflict can be avoided by examining the 6 potential areas described by Nelson in the paper Interpersonal Team Leadership Skills (Hospital Management Quarterly, 1995). Administrative procedures a good groundwork for the effective coordination of work People resources adequate resources to do the job to avoid some carrying too heavy a load. Process for cost overruns proper resources in place so that the team knows what to do when cost becomes a problem and additional funding needs to be sought. This way the problem is resolved before it becomes a problem for management. Schedules the project schedule should be visible. The team should work together so that everyone achieves their deadline. Responsibilties what areas are assigned and who is responsible for them? Wish lists stick to the project in hand, avoid being side-tracked to try to fit other things into it. Do the other things youd like to after the original project is successfully completed.